What Trump's Presidency Could Mean for Asia.

As the 2024 US presidential race unfolds, Donald Trump’s bid to return to the Oval Office has created significant unease across Asia. Despite a temporary dip in momentum due to increased support for Kamala Harris after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Trump's potential comeback continues to alarm policymakers and analysts in the region. The situation intensified following Biden’s poor debate performance and a failed assassination attempt on Trump, which paradoxically boosted his popularity. This has forced a reevaluation among Asian countries already wary of Trump’s “America First” policy from his previous term.

Analysts are concerned that a second Trump administration could exacerbate tensions with China and strain US-led defense alliances. Trump's first term saw the US exit the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a move that weakened economic ties and strategic partnerships in the region. If Trump resumes office, his administration might revert to a pattern of neglect towards Southeast Asia, compounded by erratic policies and high turnover of senior officials, unlike the consistent engagement seen under Biden.

Trump’s administration was known for its unpredictable Asia policy, characterized by skipped summits and fluctuating commitments. In contrast, Biden has sought to reassure Asian allies through initiatives like the integrated deterrence strategy and regular visits by key officials. Nonetheless, there is a fear that Trump’s return could lead to hasty policy decisions, especially concerning Taiwan and China, potentially destabilizing the region.

The US interests in Southeast Asia focus on countering China’s influence. However, Trump’s approach during his first term was often influenced by personal relationships with regional leaders rather than a coherent strategy. His rapport with leaders like former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and North Korea's Kim Jong-un exemplifies this. Despite these personal ties, Trump’s rhetoric and policies heightened US-China tensions and raised doubts about America’s commitment to its alliances.

Asian countries have responded to these uncertainties by strengthening their own regional partnerships. Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Philippines have all increased defense cooperation, often in direct response to US policy shifts. For example, Japan and Australia have expanded their military capabilities, while the Philippines has deepened its alliance with the US through joint patrols and military agreements.

If Trump returns to power, his administration may continue its transactional approach, demanding greater burden-sharing from allies. This could lead to reduced US commitments in areas like Ukraine and Israel, and increased expectations for Taiwan to finance its own defense. For countries like Japan and South Korea, this might necessitate further independent strengthening of their military capabilities and alliances.

In India, a Trump presidency could reinforce strategic defense ties with the US, potentially leading to a further shift away from reliance on Russian military equipment. India has already been diversifying its defense sources, and Trump’s stance on China might align with India’s security interests.

​Trump’s withdrawal from the TPP had significant geopolitical impacts, reducing US economic influence and allowing China to strengthen its position through initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. A second Trump administration’s protectionist policies could escalate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chains, adversely affecting ASEAN members. The heightened uncertainty may force countries to choose sides more definitively between the US and China, potentially leading to increased regional tensions and military build-up.