Trump’s Social Media and Market Volatility

The landscape of global finance has undergone a fundamental shift in 2025, as the boundary between official executive policy and social media punditry continues to vanish. Since his re-election, Donald Trump’s digital presence has become a primary driver of market volatility, with his "America First" agenda frequently delivered in short, aggressive bursts that can erase or create trillions of dollars in equity value in a single afternoon. Investors on RealisedGains have noted that while the frequency of market-related posts has decreased compared to his first term, the potency of those concerning tariffs has reached an all-time high. As a JPMorgan strategist recently observed, the market is effectively "one Truth Social post away" from a 5% swing in either direction.

The most controversial episode of the year occurred in April, following the chaos of "Liberation Day." On 2 April, the administration's introduction of a new reciprocal tariff regime triggered a massive sell-off, purging approximately $6 trillion from the S&P 500. However, the narrative shifted dramatically on 9 April. Just after the opening bell at 09:37 ET, the President posted: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT.”

While the post initially perplexed the trading floor, its significance became clear four hours later when the White House announced a surprise 90-day suspension on nearly all new reciprocal tariffs, excluding those involving China. The resulting market explosion was historic. The S&P 500 surged by 9.52%, its third-largest single-day gain since the Second World War, reclaiming $4.3 trillion in value. Simultaneously, shares in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) outstripped the broader market with a 22.67% jump. This timing sparked fierce accusations of "insider trading" from political opponents, though formal charges have yet to be filed as the year draws to a close.

By October, the markets were once again at the mercy of the President’s keyboard. On 10 October, a 500-word diatribe regarding China’s dominance over rare earth metals sent the Nasdaq into its worst tailspin since the spring. In the post, the President accused Beijing of becoming "very hostile" and attempting to “clog” the markets through manufacturing export controls. The post culminated in a warning that the US was calculating a "massive increase of tariffs" on Chinese imports.

The reaction was swift and devastating, wiping $2 trillion off the total market capitalisation in a single session. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 3.56%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 879 points. This event reinforced the reality that geopolitical friction, when mediated through social media, creates a level of unpredictability that traditional economic models struggle to quantify.

Individual corporate giants have also found themselves in the crosshairs. In May, Apple shares fell 3% after the President issued a direct ultimatum regarding the company's manufacturing footprint. He posted that he expected iPhones to be “manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” adding that a failure to comply would result in a tariff of at least 25%. This led to Apple’s longest losing streak in three years.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has remained a constant target. Labelling Chair Jerome Powell as “Mr. Too Late,” the President has demanded pre-emptive rate cuts to fuel growth. Reports suggest the administration is already vetting potential replacements for 2026, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh—the so-called “Two Kevins”—emerging as frontrunners. For the modern investor, 2025 has proven that the President’s feed is as essential, as the world literally moves at his fingertips.