Trump’s Policies' Impact on Singapore Property Market

Trump’s Second Term

As Donald Trump assumes the U.S. presidency for a second time in January 2025, his policies are poised to send shockwaves through global markets, with Singapore’s property sector standing at a critical juncture. Known for its export-driven economy and status as a financial hub, Singapore is particularly sensitive to shifts in international trade, capital flows, and monetary policy—all areas where Trump’s agenda promises disruption. Drawing on historical precedent, current economic indicators, and the latest developments, this article examines how Trump’s administration could reshape Singapore’s real estate landscape. My argument is unequivocal: while Trump’s policies will inject uncertainty and strain into the market, they will ultimately reinforce Singapore’s position as a resilient safe haven, driving selective growth in residential properties even as commercial sectors falter.

Unlike neutral analyses that hedge bets, I take a firm stance: Singapore’s property market will not merely weather Trump’s tenure—it will thrive in pockets, propelled by its unique ability to attract capital amid global chaos. However, this growth will be uneven, with luxury homes and resilient residential segments outperforming a beleaguered commercial market. Let’s explore this through three lenses: the intensified U.S.-China trade war, the interplay of U.S. interest rates and Singapore’s borrowing costs, and the looming crisis in commercial real estate.

Trade Wars Redux: Singapore as a Magnet for Displaced Capital

Trump’s first term saw tariffs on Chinese goods escalate to 25%, sparking a capital exodus from China that benefited Singapore’s property market in 2019. Today, his rhetoric points to an even fiercer stance, with proposed tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports and 20% on all other foreign goods. This aggressive protectionism threatens to destabilize global trade, pushing Chinese investors—already wary from domestic economic tightening—toward stable alternatives. Singapore, with its political neutrality and robust legal framework, is primed to capture this flight capital once more. In 2024, foreigners accounted for 5.3% of Core Central Region (CCR) home purchases, down from 10.4% in 2023 due to cooling measures. I predict a sharp reversal in 2025, with luxury condos in districts 9 and 10 seeing a 10-15% price surge as Chinese buyers prioritize safety over cost.

The catch? Singapore’s 60% Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreigners—a steep jump from 15% pre-2018—might seem a deterrent. Yet, I argue it won’t be. The scale of Trump’s tariffs, combined with ongoing global conflicts (e.g., Ukraine and Gaza), will render the ABSD a minor hurdle for ultra-wealthy investors seeking refuge. Historical data backs this: during the 2019 trade war peak, prime district sales spiked despite a then-30% ABSD. Today’s higher tax may temper volume but not value, as the wealthiest buyers—undeterred by percentages—snap up trophy assets. Singapore’s government may even welcome this, as it bolsters tax revenue without overheating the mass market. The result will be a polarized residential sector, where luxury thrives while mid-tier properties languish.

Interest Rates: A High-Stakes Balancing Act

Trump’s penchant for pressuring the Federal Reserve is well-documented, and 2025 sees him doubling down. In his first term, he pushed for near-zero rates, and now, with the U.S. federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% following 75 basis points of cuts in late 2024, he’s again calling for aggressive reductions. For Singapore, where SORA-linked loans dominate (e.g., 3M SORA + 0.4%), a U.S. rate drop to 3% could lower mortgage rates to 3.5%-4%, down from 4.5% in early 2025. This would ignite demand, especially for new launches in suburban areas like Tampines or Punggol, where young families and upgraders dominate. I foresee a 5-8% uptick in transaction volumes by Q3 2025 if Trump’s pressure succeeds.

But here’s the rub: Trump’s tariffs could backfire, stoking U.S. inflation—projected to rise 1.5% in 2025—and forcing the Fed to hold or hike rates instead. If U.S. rates climb back to 5%, SORA could hit 4.5%-5%, squeezing Singaporean borrowers already constrained by a 55% Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) and a 4% floor rate. My take? Inflation will win this tug-of-war, keeping rates elevated and dampening broad market growth. Only cash-rich buyers—locals and Americans (who face no ABSD)—will capitalize, widening affordability gaps. Singapore’s central bank, the MAS, might ease monetary policy in April 2025, but it won’t offset Trump-driven global pressures fully.

Commercial Real Estate

Singapore’s commercial property sector—retail, office, and industrial—faces a reckoning under Trump’s trade policies. His first term saw rental rates dip 3.5% in 2019 as trade tensions hit exporters, and this time, the damage could be worse. Tariffs now target Mexico and Canada alongside China, threatening Singapore’s trade-dependent GDP, forecast to slow to 2% in 2025 from 4% in 2024. Retail rents, already battered by e-commerce (down 2% in 2024), will slide further as consumer spending weakens. Office demand, up 6% in early 2025, risks reversal if multinational tenants scale back amid supply chain chaos.

I’m bearish here: commercial yields will erode, with vacancy rates rising to 15% by late 2025 from 10% in 2024. Investors will flee to residential properties, even with the 60% ABSD, as commercial risks outweigh rewards. The difference from Trump’s first term? Broader tariff coverage and a more interconnected global economy amplify the fallout. Singapore’s export model can’t dodge this bullet, and while logistics hubs may hold firm (rents up 2% in 2024), retail and office spaces will bleed value. The government might intervene with relief measures, but they’ll be too late to stem the tide.

Looking Back, Looking Forward: Prices in Context
From 2017-2020, new condo prices rose from $1,500 to $2,000 psf, fueled by supply shocks more than Trump’s policies. Resale condos stayed flat at $1,300-$1,400 psf, while HDB prices dipped pre-Covid before surging post-2020. Today, tighter regulations—higher ABSD, stricter TDSR—equip Singapore to handle volatility better. I predict luxury new sales will hit $2,300 psf by year-end 2025, driven by foreign demand, while resale and HDB markets stagnate under borrowing constraints and trade-war fallout.

Trump’s influence is real but secondary to local dynamics. His policies will amplify existing trends—wealth concentration in prime areas, caution in the mass market—rather than rewrite them. Singapore’s resilience, forged through crises like Covid, will shine through, but not without scars.

Navigating the Trump Storm

​Trump’s second term will be a crucible for Singapore’s property market, testing its adaptability and exposing its fault lines. Luxury residential properties will emerge as winners, buoyed by capital flight and Singapore’s safe-haven allure, while commercial real estate buckles under trade disruptions. Interest rates, caught between Trump’s whims and inflationary realities, will favor the wealthy over the stretched middle class. My advice? Investors should target high-end condos now—prices will climb as 2025 unfolds. Homebuyers should lock in fixed rates to dodge potential hikes, and commercial landlords should brace for lean years or pivot to residential plays. Singapore will endure, but only the nimble will prosper—act decisively or be left behind.