Singapore Housing Market Shifts

The anticipated surge in HDB resale flat supply, with over 50,000 new Build-to-Order (BTO) flats set to launch between 2025 and 2027, signals a pivotal shift in Singapore’s housing market, potentially stabilizing resale prices that rose 9.6% in 2024 but slowed to a 1.6% increase in the first quarter of 2025. This trend, coupled with the possibility of an earlier review of the 15-month wait-out period for private homeowners, underscores a critical moment for Singaporeans to reassess their housing and financial strategies. The evolving market dynamics offer opportunities for improved affordability but also demand careful financial planning to navigate uncertainties in price stabilization and policy changes. For many, homeownership remains a cornerstone of financial security, yet the interplay of market supply, government policies, and economic conditions necessitates a disciplined approach to budgeting and long-term planning to ensure sustainable wealth-building.

Singapore’s public housing market has experienced significant price volatility in recent years, driven by tight supply and robust demand. In 2024, resale flat prices surged by 9.6%, nearly doubling the 4.9% growth recorded in 2023, with median prices for four-room flats in mature estates like Toa Payoh reaching record highs. The first quarter of 2025, however, marked a turning point, with price growth slowing to 1.6%, the lowest in five quarters. This moderation is largely attributed to HDB’s strategic increase in flat supply, including the largest-ever Sale of Balance Flats exercise in February 2025, which offered 5,500 units. Additionally, the completion of Minimum Occupation Periods (MOP) for pandemic-era flats is expected to further boost resale supply from 2026, easing pressure on prices.

The 15-month wait-out period, implemented in September 2022, was designed to cool the overheated resale market by requiring private homeowners to wait before purchasing non-subsidised HDB resale flats. This policy, which exempts seniors aged 55 and above buying four-room or smaller flats, aimed to ensure that public housing remained accessible to first-time buyers and those with genuine housing needs. With resale prices showing signs of stabilization and supply set to increase significantly, there is growing discussion about reviewing this policy earlier than the initially planned 2027 or 2028 timeline. The government’s cautious approach reflects a commitment to maintaining price stability while addressing the needs of private homeowners seeking to downgrade.

The evolving housing market demands a disciplined approach to budgeting, as homeownership remains a significant financial commitment for Singaporeans. The Central Provident Fund (CPF) plays a critical role, with 90% of HDB buyers utilizing CPF Ordinary Account funds for home purchases in 2024. However, the median resale price of a four-room flat, which reached $580,000 in mature estates in 2025, requires careful financial planning, especially for young couples with limited savings. HDB’s concessionary loan rate of 2.6% provides some relief, but buyers must account for additional costs like COV, which averaged $30,000 for four-room flats in high-demand areas in 2025.

Singapore’s broader economic environment adds another layer of complexity to personal financial planning. Inflation, which stabilized at 2.5% in 2025 after peaking at 4.1% in 2023, continues to erode purchasing power, particularly for middle-income households. The Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) is expected to decline slightly in 2026, potentially lowering mortgage rates for private properties and indirectly easing demand for resale flats. However, global economic uncertainties, including trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions, could impact job security and income growth, affecting Singaporeans’ ability to service housing loans.

Some may argue that the increased supply of flats could lead to a sharp decline in resale prices, benefiting buyers but harming sellers who purchased at peak prices. However, the persistent demand for HDB flats, particularly in mature estates, and the government’s proactive measures, such as adjusting loan-to-value limits to 75% in 2024, suggest that a significant price drop is unlikely. Instead, the market is poised for gradual stabilization, balancing the interests of buyers and sellers. Another concern is that an early removal of the wait-out period could reignite demand from private homeowners, driving up prices again. Yet, the substantial increase in flat supply and the government’s data-driven approach to policy adjustments mitigate this risk, ensuring that any changes prioritize long-term affordability.

As Singapore’s housing market enters a phase of increased supply and potential policy adjustments, Singaporeans must adapt their financial strategies to capitalize on emerging opportunities. The projected launch of 130,000 flats between 2021 and 2027, coupled with early signs of price stabilization, offers hope for improved affordability, particularly for young families and first-time buyers. However, the uncertainty surrounding the wait-out period review and the broader economic outlook demands proactive financial planning. First-time buyers should prioritize BTO applications to benefit from subsidized prices, while preparing for potential COV payments by maintaining a robust savings plan. Private homeowners should monitor policy developments closely, as an early removal of the wait-out period could simplify transitions to HDB flats, but they must also ensure their properties remain competitive in a stabilizing market.