SGX Bull Run: The Hidden Risks & Rewards in 2025's Market

Singapore’s stock market is demonstrating formidable momentum, positioning itself on the foundation of a potential multi-year bull run. The Straits Times Index (STI) has surged past the 4,200 mark, gaining over 10% since the start of 2025 and more than 20% in the past twelve months. This robust performance is underpinned by surprisingly resilient economic fundamentals, with economists raising Singapore's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% after a stronger-than-expected 4.4% expansion in the second quarter. This upward revision reflects a more bullish outlook on key sectors like manufacturing and construction, setting a firm stage for sustained market optimism.

Beneath the Surface of the Rally

The current market strength is not merely speculative froth; it is anchored in solid corporate earnings and proactive economic management. A significant portion of the STI's recent gains has been powered by the strong financial results of its largest constituents—the local banks. Institutions like DBS Group have demonstrated resilience, with rising net interest income and strong fee growth from wealth management, allowing for continued capital return dividends on top of ordinary payouts.

Furthermore, government initiatives are playing a crucial role in fuelling bullish sentiment. The ambitious S$5 billion Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) is seen as a major intervention to revitalise Singapore's equity market, aiming to unlock deeper liquidity and encourage new listings. This state-led push, combined with attractive dividend yields averaging around 4.5%—a standout in the region—creates a compelling case for both local and international investors seeking stable returns in a volatile global environment.

Economic Resilience in a Shifting World

Singapore’s economic performance has defied earlier concerns over geopolitical tensions and global trade frictions. The economy has shown remarkable resilience, with non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rebounding strongly, beating consensus estimates. Economists point to easing trade tensions, a sustained technology cycle upturn, and significant capital inflows as key factors that could further bolster the positive outlook. This stability makes Singapore an attractive safe haven, particularly as investors seek non-US denominated revenue streams.

The nation's strong policy certainty and triple-A credit rating further enhance its appeal, drawing foreign investment into local bonds and equities. While external risks such as geopolitical conflicts and potential volatility in global financial markets remain, the domestic economy's strength provides a significant buffer. This resilience is supported by a robust outlook for corporate restructuring and value-unlocking exercises among major listed companies, a trend expected to continue and provide further catalysts for the market.

This environment of steady growth is reflected in the broader economic sentiment. Inflation remains moderate, with core inflation steady at 0.6%, giving the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) flexibility in its policy decisions. The combination of controlled inflation, a strong Singapore dollar, and proactive government support creates a fertile ground for corporate profitability and, by extension, continued stock market appreciation.

The Path Forward for Investors

Looking ahead, the conditions appear ripe for the bull run to mature, potentially unlocking a virtuous cycle of rising valuations and firmer investor confidence. Analysts have raised their year-end 2025 targets for the STI, with some projections implying an upside of over 8% from current levels. The market's forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13.4x is not considered stretched, suggesting there is still room for growth compared to historical averages and regional peers.

For investors, this landscape offers clear opportunities. The banking sector remains a defensive stronghold with attractive dividend yields. Meanwhile, sectors poised to benefit from structural trends, such as the green energy transition and artificial intelligence-led efficiencies, present significant growth potential. The ongoing corporate restructuring theme also offers tactical opportunities for those able to identify companies set to unlock shareholder value.

However, navigating this promising market requires a strategic approach. While the overarching trend is positive, investors should remain aware of potential short-term corrections, as some technical indicators suggest an overbought market. Geopolitical risks, while currently managed, could re-emerge as a headwind. The most prudent strategy, therefore, involves focusing on fundamentally sound companies with strong earnings growth, sustainable dividends, and clear catalysts for future expansion. By doing so, investors can position themselves to capitalise on a market that appears not just to be running, but to be building stamina for a longer race ahead.

Unlocking a New Cycle of Confidence

Beyond the immediate financial metrics, a sustained market rally has the power to fundamentally reshape investor psychology and corporate behaviour. A prolonged bull run can serve as a powerful catalyst, encouraging younger, high-growth companies to view a public listing not as a hurdle, but as a strategic step to accelerate their expansion plans. This renewed interest in Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) is critical for injecting new vitality into the Singapore Exchange.

​Such a shift creates a self-reinforcing loop that benefits the entire ecosystem. As investor confidence firms up, it leads to deeper market liquidity, making it easier for companies to access capital for acquisitions or organic growth. This, in turn, drives economic activity and creates value, which then supports rising share prices and further reinforces positive sentiment. It is this powerful cycle of liquidity, valuation, and confidence that can transform a market rally from a temporary upswing into a long-term, structural bull market.

Shaun

Founder

With over a decade of expertise spanning investment advisory, investment banking analysis, oil trading, and financial advisory roles, RealisedGains is committed to empowering retail investors to achieve lasting financial well-being. By delivering meticulously curated investment insights and educational programs, RealisedGains equips individuals with the knowledge and tools to make sophisticated, informed financial decisions.

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Co-Founder

Analyst, Trader

With over a decade of expertise spanning investment advisory, investment banking analysis, oil trading, and financial advisory roles, RealisedGains is committed to empowering retail investors to achieve lasting financial well-being. By delivering meticulously curated investment insights and educational programs, RealisedGains equips individuals with the knowledge and tools to make sophisticated, informed financial decisions.

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