Peeking into the Cheeks of Grindr’s ANALytics

Bumble’s stock hit a low of $5, shrinking its market cap from $14 billion in 2021 to $516 million. Match Group’s valuation dropped from over $51 billion to $7.5 billion. Meanwhile, Grindr’s worth climbed to $3.28 billion from $700 million in 2023. Its niche focus and growing user base fuel this rise, while mainstream rivals struggle with pricing reluctance. Grindr’s revenue jumped from $108 million in 2019 to $259 million in 2023, hitting $319 million in the past year—outpacing Bumble and Match Group.

Grindr’s next earnings will reveal its Q4 results. Last quarter, revenue rose 27% to $89 million, with net income at $25 million and a 28% margin. Match Group’s Q4 revenue fell to $860 million from $866.2 million, and Bumble’s dropped to $261 million from $273.6 million. Analysts expect Grindr’s Q4 revenue to reach $97.1 million, pushing its 2024 total to $344 million—a 32% increase. Forecasts see $425 million in 2025, with a 42% EBITDA margin, driven by paying LGBTQ users, up 15% to 1.11 million in Q3.

Grindr’s stock charts show a steady climb within an ascending channel, above its 50-day moving average. But a bearish divergence in the Percentage Price Oscillator and an RSI triangle suggest caution. Strong earnings could push it to $20; a fall below $17.50 might signal trouble.

Grindr’s Q4 2024 revenue hit $98 million—a 35% rise—beating estimates by $7 million. Full-year revenue grew 33% to $345 million, boosted by ads and features. Yet, adjusted EBITDA of $38.6 million missed the $38.8 million target, and a 41% margin forecast for 2025 fell below 42.3% expected. The stock dropped 7.06% to $17.37 after hours. CEO George Harrison called 2024 a “solid year” for monetization, while CFO Lana Krantz sees global potential. Risks like competition and economic pressures linger, but Grindr’s 129% yearly gain keeps it in focus.