Changi T1-4: Sufficient Without Terminal 5?

Changi Airport processed 68.4 million passengers in 2024, well within its current capacity of 90 million, reinforcing its status as a global leader in efficiency and passenger experience, named the world’s best airport in 2025 for the 13th time. With Terminals 1 through 4 benefiting from recent upgrades and robust operational systems, the push for Terminal 5 (T5), which aims to add 50 million passengers by the mid-2030s, invites scrutiny. This article explores whether existing infrastructure, enhanced operations, and alternative strategies could make T5 an unnecessary expenditure given economic uncertainties and shifting travel patterns.

Changi’s four terminals are equipped to handle 90 million passengers annually, comfortably exceeding the 68.4 million passengers recorded in 2024. Terminal 1, operational since 1981, and Terminal 2, opened in 1990, have seen major refurbishments, with Terminal 2’s recent expansion adding 226,000 square feet and boosting capacity by 5 million passengers. Terminal 3, launched in 2008, provides extensive retail and lounge spaces, while Terminal 4, opened in 2017, manages 16 million passengers with advanced automation. These upgrades ensure that Changi’s infrastructure remains underutilized, with sufficient headroom to accommodate near-term growth.

Changi’s operational strengths provide viable alternatives to building T5. The airport’s integrated terminal model, with Terminals 1, 2, and 3 linked by Skytrain and footbridges, enables flexible gate assignments and efficient transfers. Terminal 4, though separate, is connected by regular shuttles. By refining flight schedules, expanding automation, and using data analytics, Changi could increase throughput without new construction. Terminal 4’s self-service check-in and biometric systems, which reduce staffing needs and speed up processing, could be rolled out across other terminals to enhance capacity without the need for a new terminal.

The financial commitment to T5, with construction contracts valued at $4.75 billion and an estimated total cost of $10 billion, is significant, particularly in a constrained fiscal environment. Funded partly by the government, Changi Airport Group, and user fees, the project spans multiple government terms and won’t be completed until the mid-2030s. This extended timeline introduces risks, as economic downturns or geopolitical tensions could suppress air travel demand. The COVID-19 pandemic, which delayed T5’s planning by two years, underscores how quickly travel patterns can change, suggesting caution in pursuing such a costly project when existing terminals are not fully utilized.

Air travel growth is not guaranteed. While the Asia-Pacific region is expected to drive significant air traffic increases by 2040, technologies like virtual conferencing could reduce business travel, a core segment for Changi. Emerging high-speed rail networks, such as the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore line, may divert regional passengers, easing pressure on Changi’s terminals. The growth of budget carriers using smaller airports like Seletar could also absorb low-cost traffic, allowing Terminals 1-4 to focus on premium and long-haul flights, potentially negating the need for T5’s additional capacity.

Advocates for T5 argue it’s necessary to compete with expanding airports like Dubai’s Al Maktoum, which targets 260 million passengers annually. However, Changi’s strength lies in its efficiency, passenger experience, and unified terminal operations, not sheer scale. Terminals 1-4, with over 70,000 square meters of retail and dining space, complemented by Jewel’s attractions like the Rain Vortex, already create a destination-like experience. Enhancing lounges, entertainment, or digital services could maintain this competitive edge without T5’s infrastructure, especially since Changi connects 100 airlines to over 400 cities, a network that doesn’t currently demand expansion.

​Changi Airport’s Terminals 1-4, with a capacity of 90 million passengers and recent enhancements, are well-positioned to meet current and near-term demand. Through operational optimization, technological upgrades, and regional cooperation, Singapore can maintain its aviation hub status without the immediate need for Terminal 5. The project’s significant cost, environmental impact, and long timeline, coupled with uncertainties in travel trends, call for a cautious approach. Policymakers should prioritize incremental improvements to existing terminals and sustainable practices to maximize Changi’s potential. Moving forward, Singapore must weigh ambition against pragmatism, ensuring Changi remains a global leader without overcommitting resources in an uncertain future.