BOJ Governor Remains Uncertain on Interest Rate Adjustments
Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s December meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda refrained from signaling any clear intentions regarding interest rate changes. In his latest speech, Ueda emphasized that the central bank’s decisions remain closely tied to evolving economic conditions and inflation, leaving the door open for potential rate hikes. His relatively cautious stance led to a 0.5% decline in the yen, pushing it to 155.14 against the dollar, while bond yields also saw a slight dip as markets had expected a firmer tone.
Market expectations are divided, with swaps showing a 54% probability of a rate increase in December. The BOJ’s rate hike in July caused notable market turbulence, prompting the central bank to recognize the need for clearer communication. Despite this, Ueda offered little clarity on whether another rate hike is imminent, potentially leading to further yen weakness if his stance remains ambiguous.
Monitoring Economic Risks and Long-Term Goals
Ueda stressed the importance of closely monitoring risks, particularly those linked to the US economy, while expressing optimism about a soft landing for the US, supported by recent positive data. He also noted that there is no immediate need for extensive deliberation before policy adjustments, given the reduced risks from the US economy.
The governor highlighted the importance of a gradual adjustment in monetary policy, aimed at fostering long-term economic stability. He emphasized that improving economic performance and achieving price stability are key to sustaining Japan’s economic growth and meeting inflation targets in a balanced and reliable manner.
Dollar on the Rise as Yen Faces Uncertainty
The US dollar continued its bullish momentum, buoyed by strong Treasury yields and a more restrained outlook on US rate cuts, while the yen struggled amid concerns over the Bank of Japan’s stance. Yen bears were wary of any hints from Governor Ueda on a potential December rate hike due to the currency’s weakness. The dollar retreated slightly against the yen after Japanese officials warned of potential intervention if the yen depreciated too quickly.
The markets now see a roughly 55% chance of a quarter-point rate hike at the December 19 BOJ meeting. Meanwhile, the US dollar index hit a one-year high, with analysts predicting further appreciation by the end of 2025, driven by a stronger-than-expected US economy and potential trade policies under President Trump.

Shaun
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With over a decade of expertise spanning investment advisory, investment banking analysis, oil trading, and financial advisory roles, RealisedGains is committed to empowering retail investors to achieve lasting financial well-being. By delivering meticulously curated investment insights and educational programs, RealisedGains equips individuals with the knowledge and tools to make sophisticated, informed financial decisions.
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