Bitcoin Retreats Over 5% to $96,200 after less Fed Rate Cuts expected

December 2024 FOMC Minutes: Officials Signal Slower Rate Cuts Ahead

Monetary Policy

• The Federal Reserve broadly supported a 25bps rate cut, with most members advocating a cautious stance on future easing.

• Several policymakers stressed the importance of a measured approach to monetary adjustments over the coming quarters.

• Some noted that halting rate cuts might be necessary if inflation remains elevated or if the economy maintains strong momentum.

• A smaller group of officials suggested a willingness to accelerate rate cuts if inflation trends down or the labor market weakens more than expected.

• Many emphasized the need to carefully evaluate the neutral rate and proceed gradually to avoid errors in policy.

Risk Considerations

• Risks to inflation appear balanced; however, recent higher-than-anticipated readings require ongoing vigilance.

• Labor market risks were considered manageable, with no signs of a sharp deterioration in conditions.

Economic Overview

• While progress on inflation has slowed, the downward trajectory remains intact, with core PCE inflation reported at 2.8% in October.

• The labor market shows slight easing, but unemployment remains low at 4.2%.

• Policymakers anticipate solid GDP growth continuing, although some expressed concern about financial challenges facing lower-income households.

Balance Sheet Updates

• Plans to continue reducing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities were reaffirmed, maintaining monthly caps of $25B and $35B, respectively.

• Adjustments to the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) rate were discussed to align it with the lower bound of the federal funds rate range.

Additional Insights

• The Fed reiterated its commitment to data-driven decision-making, weighing risks to both inflation and employment.

• The preferred path remains a gradual easing of monetary policy, with flexibility to adjust based on changing economic conditions.

As the Federal Reserve navigates an evolving economic landscape, its decisions will remain pivotal in shaping the outlook for inflation, employment, and growth.

Bitcoin Retreats Over 5% to $96,200 Amid Strong U.S. Economic Signals Indicating Limited Fed Rate Cuts in 2025

​In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s market cap, the leading cryptocurrency globally, dropped to $1.907 trillion. Bitcoin now holds a market dominance of 56.8%, according to CoinMarketCap. During the same period, BTC trading volume jumped 22.6%, reaching $61.6 billion.

Bitcoin experienced a 5% dip, trading at $96,200 after briefly surpassing the $100,000 threshold. This pullback followed robust U.S. economic data, which painted a picture of resilience and tempered expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Data released recently highlighted that the U.S. services sector gained momentum in December, coupled with a rise in job openings during November. Such signs of economic strength have led market participants to lower their expectations to just one rate cut in 2025, compared to two previously anticipated in December, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool.

Crypto Market Reaction

The broader crypto market also felt the impact. Ethereum plunged 9%, while other notable altcoins like XRP (-4.3%), BNB (-4.7%), and Dogecoin (-10.7%) followed suit. Overall, the global cryptocurrency market cap declined by 6.15%, landing at $3.36 trillion.

Bitcoin’s intraday performance saw it trading at $96,400 as of 10:43 AM IST, down 5.4%, with a peak at $102,022 and a low of $96,132. Stablecoins made up 92.97% of the total 24-hour crypto trading volume, amounting to $158.08 billion.

Expert Insights

“Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies faced a significant downturn after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data emerged,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus. “The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.68%, nearing multi-year highs, sparking a $504 million liquidation in long positions—the first major leverage reset of the year.”

Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex, noted that BTC’s immediate support has shifted to $94,500, while resistance lies at $98,600. He advised caution given the rapid shifts in market dynamics.

Similarly, Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder of Pi42, urged investors to avoid overexposure in the current volatile environment, as momentum could swing rapidly.

Technical Perspective

Bitcoin’s bearish sentiment persists, with current trading levels around $96,500 potentially driving the price down to $95,195. If this support level fails, the next targets are $90,000 and $87,055, according to Sathvik Vishwanath, CEO of Unocoin. A recovery above $99,785, however, could reignite bullish momentum.

The anticipated price range for Bitcoin today is $93,500 (support) to $98,500 (resistance), with an overall bearish outlook dominating the trend.

Stay Informed

​The cryptocurrency space remains highly dynamic, with prices often shifting drastically in short timeframes. Investors must remain vigilant and informed to navigate the market’s volatile nature effectively.

Shaun

Founder

With over a decade of expertise spanning investment advisory, investment banking analysis, oil trading, and financial advisory roles, RealisedGains is committed to empowering retail investors to achieve lasting financial well-being. By delivering meticulously curated investment insights and educational programs, RealisedGains equips individuals with the knowledge and tools to make sophisticated, informed financial decisions.

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Founder, Analyst

With over a decade of expertise spanning investment advisory, investment banking analysis, oil trading, and financial advisory roles, RealisedGains is committed to empowering retail investors to achieve lasting financial well-being. By delivering meticulously curated investment insights and educational programs, RealisedGains equips individuals with the knowledge and tools to make sophisticated, informed financial decisions.

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